the inexact science

The Super Bowl is coming up, but since the 49ers aren't playing in it I'm looking more forward to the NFL Draft. And the combine. And free agency. So really, for football fans, there is no offseason!

Our cable package includes getting the NFL Network, which has coverage of the little things that I can't see anywhere else. Recently, it showed practice for the Senior Bowl, as well as the game itself. And currently when I watch, it shows a stream along the bottom of the screen of Mike Mayock's top 5 prospects at each position. I'm just one of many that finds the draft fascinating.

As the well-worn cliche goes, hindsight is 20-20. And the draft and the discussion leading up to it that really sticks in my mind is the year that Peyton Manning was selected first overall. Given that he is now considered one of the greatest quarterbacks ever to play the game, it seems obvious that he must have been the obvious choice that year. But back then, no one knew for sure whether the best quarterback available was Peyton... or Ryan Leaf. Seriously! It was a toss-up - people were arguing back and forth. Another example that still has people scratching their heads is how could Tom Brady have lasted until pick #199 the year he was drafted? We can safely say now that he should have been picked higher, to put it mildly. So here we are looking at another draft. No one knows. People may think they know (even Mr. Mayock, whom is considered one of the very best evaluators of talent), but they don't know.

So it's fun wondering which players are going to be picked high, and which of them should. I look at Mr. Mayock's Top 5 and wonder which names that aren't even on the list will turn out to be superstars, maybe even players that go undrafted entirely (we'll know years from now). Which highly touted players will end up as disappointments? He may end up being more accurate than anybody else, but no one knows for sure what the outcomes will be for any of these players. And in the end, I can only hope that the 49ers end up getting it right!